- Morgan Stanley tripled its projected coronavirus caseload to 570,000, up from 200,000 just two weeks ago.
- The outbreak won't slow until the end of the April, Morgan Stanley researchers said.
- The US now has the highest number of cases and the fastest-growing coronavirus outbreak of any country tracked by Morgan Stanley.
- In the US, deaths from coronavirus are increasing exponentially as testing capacity and social-distancing measures lag behind other countries.
- Unless the US ramps up quarantines, the middle of the country could become the next hotbed and reinfect coastal cities, according to Morgan Stanley.
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Morgan Stanley just tripled its coronavirus projection to 570,000 cases and said the US was in for a "broad and accelerating outbreak" that won't slow until late April at the soonest.
Just two weeks ago, researchers at the bank said they expected the US would see about 200,000 coronavirus cases and that social-distancing measures would help curb the outbreak.
Several new trends caused the firm to reassess, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Matthew Harrison wrote in a note to clients on Monday. They include the emergence of new and worsening hot spots, relatively lax quarantine initiatives, and exponentially increasing death and infection rates.
The US now has the largest number of cases and the highest growth rate among all countries tracked by the bank. On top of that, deaths are increasing at an exponential rate despite social distancing.
That could be because current quarantine measures in the US are not as strict as in other countries. Italy, for instance, is in the middle of a nationwide lockdown with the exceptions of work and emergencies, while China imposed a stringent lockdown at the end of January.
Monday's report said President Donald Trump's administration extended federal social-distancing guidelines to April 30 but added that the updated direction may not be enough.
The government's failure to implement stricter quarantines risks not only overwhelming the healthcare system but also setting the stage for a "second wave" of infections in the middle of the country after infections in coastal cities peak in mid-April, according to the firm.
As of Monday morning, there were 40 deaths in Cook County, Illinois, 34 deaths in Oakland County, Michigan, and 28 deaths in Jefferson County, Louisiana, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins. Cases in Illinois, Michigan, Louisiana, Florida, and New York are growing at rates faster than all other countries, including Italy, according to Morgan Stanley.
"We would highlight that the biggest risk to this forecast is that while we have reasonable confidence the East and West coasts will reach peak cases in the next 2-3 weeks, the interior of the country is now exhibiting signs of new outbreaks," the Morgan Stanley authors wrote.
"With these outbreaks delayed from the coasts by 2 weeks or more, there is risk that these new outbreaks will delay the US peak or cause recontamination of the coastal cities," they said.
Additionally, testing efforts in US hospitals are still hamstrung. People with symptoms of the novel coronavirus are told to go home unless they become severely ill because resources, including tests and healthcare workers themselves, are already stretched thin.
As of last week, the American rate of testing per capita was still more than six times lower than South Korea's, despite the fact that more and more people are testing positive, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation and Morgan Stanley. On top of that, US cases are growing faster than tests, according to Morgan Stanley's research.
- Read more:
- New York City hospitals are 11 days from running out of space as the number of new coronavirus cases explodes
- A third of the global population is on coronavirus lockdown — here's our constantly updated list of countries and restrictions
- Trump extends social-distancing guidelines until April 30, says the coronavirus peak is likely to hit in 2 weeks
- After more than 10,000 coronavirus deaths — the worst in the world — Italy is showing signs that its 3-week lockdown is working
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