Commodities have taken a beating this year with China slowing and the dollar rising. The CRB Commodity Index is down 5.7% since the beginning of the year.
But what's next for all of these commodities?
Morgan Stanley's commodities team, led by Adam Longson, offers multi-year outlooks for 13 major staples including energy, metals, and food commodities.
In a nutshell: buy food, sell metals.
On the latter, metal miners and refiners are now way over supplied as global growth has tailed off.
But on plantings, the team says weather-related effects will continue to cause tight supplies near-term.
They reserve their most bearish sentiment for gold and silver, where they argue fundamentals have completely collapsed.
Brent crude oil probably won't go much lower.
2013 average year price:
$110.00 / barrel
2014 average year price:
N/A
Current supplies remain buffeted by a multiple of outages as well as Mideast tensions. Demand in 2H2013 will surge.
Source: Morgan Stanley
West Texas Intermediate prices are stable.
2013 average year price:
$98.00 / barrel
2014 average year price:
$99.00 / barrel
US production should remain strong, while pipelines continue to struggle to come online.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Natural gas prices expectations remain skewed to the upside.
2013 average year price:
$4.15 / mmBtu
2014 average year price:
$4.35 / mmBtu
The industry continues to add compressed natural gas capacity, and supply growth is flattening YOY.
Source: Morgan Stanley
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